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In
Somalia, violence is status quo, dashing hopes |
By Jeffrey
Gettleman
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
NAIROBI: Fierce mortar attacks killed
more than 10 civilians in Somalia on
Tuesday, but this is the new status quo.
Nearly every day, government forces and
insurgents shell each other across the
already dilapidated neighborhoods of the
capital, Mogadishu, scattering limbs and any
remaining traces of hope. Gun prices are
soaring and more clans are joining the
underground, while an outbreak of cholera
sweeps the countryside.
"To tell you the truth, I'm pretty worried,"
said Ali Mahdi Muhammad, an influential clan
elder and once a contender for president of
Somalia. When the government came to
Mogadishu, he said, "I felt we were going
the right way. Unfortunately, that's not the
case anymore and soon it's going to be too
late."
It is hard to believe, but Somalia is
actually becoming a more violent and chaotic
place. This is not how it was supposed to
be.
Nearly two months ago, an internationally
supported transitional government ousted the
Islamist movement that ruled much of the
country and steamed into the capital with
great expectations. But confidence in the
government, which was never very high, is
rapidly bleeding away.
Somalia seems to be just shy of total
collapse — once again — because the
Ethiopian troops who provided the muscle to
throw out the Islamists have begun to
withdraw, yet none of the peacekeepers
promised from other African countries have
arrived.
Hundreds of families are streaming out of
Mogadishu, the capital, hoisting mattresses
on their backs and following pitted roads to
villages where there is no electricity,
medicine or even the faintest hint of
government, but at least no warfare, at
least not yet.
"We can't stand the shelling anymore," said
Hassan Muhammad, a father of four, who was
headed to a village in the south.
There was a brief burst of optimism
beginning Dec. 28, when government troops
marched into Mogadishu and planted the hope
that this was the end of nearly 16 years of
anarchy and bloodletting.
Cheering crowds poured into Mogadishu's
ruined streets. Aid experts in Nairobi began
circulating ambitious reconstruction plans.
Ethiopian and American officials, who worked
together to overthrow the Islamists, whom
they accused of threatening the entire Horn
of Africa, breathed a mutual sigh of relief.
But what has happened in the past few weeks
is that a deadly insurgency has started,
beginning with a few clans connected to the
Islamists and now expanding to several more.
Many government troops have refuse to get
involved.
All analysts agree that the violence will
continue and probably intensify unless the
government reconciles with clan leaders, who
control, as much as anyone controls, what
happens in Somalia.
But so far, there has been very little of
that. Instead of reaching out to truly
influential figures, analysts say, the
government has picked ministers not because
they have any substantial support among
their clans but because they will do the
government's bidding. As a result, the
government is increasingly isolated,
authoritarian and unpopular, and the
transitional president, Abdullahi Yusuf
Ahmed, is accused of behaving more like a
clan warlord than a national leader.
"Where this government is heading is so far
from where the international community wants
it to go," said Ali Iman Sharmarke, co-owner
of Mogadishu's HornAfrik broadcast station.
Donor nations agreed to pay the salaries of
Somali officials with the understanding that
these men and a handful of women would
shepherd the country to democratic elections
in 2009. But there has been almost no
progress toward setting up an election
commission, let alone even taking a census.
Many Somalis say that they would be more
inclined to support the transitional
government if they thought it was indeed
transitional.
To be fair, ruling Somalia, which has not
had a functioning central government since
1991, is no easy task. Thirteen previous
governments have been formed and 13 previous
governments have failed.
Abdirahman Dinari, the chief spokesman for
the government, said that criticism of the
government's selection of ministers was just
an excuse. "These people wouldn't be happy
with anyone in power," he said.
Dinari conceded that the government, on its
own, did not have the skills to pull the
country together. "We need help," he said.
But Dinari said that help had been slow to
arrive, partly because international
organizations were spending millions of
dollars on Somalia staff based in Kenya,
which is deemed a much safer place to work,
instead of investing those resources
directly in Somalia.
"This is not just our failure," he said,
"but the failure of the international
community."
Still, many say that argument rings hollow.
Security in Somalia does not depend on
foreign troops or foreign aid. At least, it
never has. In the mid-1990s, the United
States and the United Nations poured
hundreds of millions of dollars into
stabilizing Somalia, but their efforts
failed.
Then along came the Islamists, who during
their six-month reign last year pacified the
hornet's nest of Mogadishu without foreign
peacekeepers or significant foreign aid.
They succeeded by getting clans to
voluntarily disarm their militias and
getting Somalis on the street to buy into
their Islam-is-the-answer solution. (Somalia
is almost purely Sunni Muslim).
One Western diplomat laughed when asked if a
modest force of peacekeepers — the African
Union is proposing around 8,000 — could
deliver the same level of stability that the
Islamists had delivered on their own.
"No way," he said, speaking on the condition
of anonymity. "And the government's urgency
for peacekeepers shows you just how badly
they've done with reconciliation."
Mohammed Ibrahim and Yuusuf Maxamuud
contributed reporting from Mogadishu.
AU mission approved
The UN Security Council voted unanimously to
authorize an African Union force to help
stabilize Somalia, setting the stage for UN
peacekeepers to take over the long-term job
of bringing peace, The Associated Press
reported from the United Nations in New York
on Tuesday.
The resolution urges the Union's 53 nations
to contribute troops an 8,000- strong force
and urges other UN member states to provide
financial support and any needed personnel,
equipment and services. |
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