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Back-up Plan
Lacking in Somalia, Says Analyst |
By Joe De Capua
Washington
15 February 2007
De Capua
interview with Ken Menkhaus mp3
De Capua
interview with Ken Menkhaus ra
Many of the peace proposals for Somalia call
for reconciliation between the transitional
federal government, militia leaders and
moderate members of the ousted Islamic
Courts Union. But what happens if
reconciliation fails to take place? That’s a
question being posed Somali expert Ken
Menkhaus.
Menkhaus, a professor at Davidson College in
Davidson, North Carolina, spoke to VOA
English to Africa Service reporter Joe De
Capua about a backup plan to a government of
national unity.
“I don’t think currently there is a back up
plan. I think all energies diplomatically
are focused on trying to create conditions
for the best case scenario. And that’s
certainly understandable and applaudable.
But I do think some governments need to
start thinking about less than optimal
outcomes because I think that’s what we’re
looking at. As a very likely outcome of the
Somalia crisis right now is that it is going
to get worse.
Reconciliation will not succeed in bringing
together the TFG (Transitional Federal
Government) and the core elements of
opposition in Mogadishu. And I suspect we’re
going to end up with a return more or less
to the Somalia of 2005, where you have a
weak TFG that will have to retreat back to
Baidoa, facing a loose coalition of
opposition in Mogadishu,” he says.
Menkhaus explains the difficulty in
achieving reconciliation. “The key impasse
in reconciliation is that both sides
perceive it to be contrary to their
interests. Within the TFG there is real
reluctance on the part of leaders to
contemplate a government of national unity
that would bring in important Mogadishu
constituencies because many of those
individuals in the TFG would lose their
positions. It’s also not entirely clear that
their Ethiopian patron would be willing to
see some of the Mogadishu constituencies
entering into the TFG,” he says.
He adds, “On the other side, Most of the
Mogadishu opposition is at this point is
unwilling to even contemplate being part of
the TFG. They view it as illegitimate. They
would rather make Mogadishu ungovernable and
run the clock out. The TFG has only two and
a half years left on its mandate. So, the
opposition feels that time is on their side.
The problem with this scenario is that the
people who pay the cost of two and a half
years of renewed state collapse are the
Somali people themselves.”
Menkhaus says, however, that all is not
lost. But he says the TFG must work toward a
constitution and having an independent
electoral commission to give people
confidence in the interim government.
Source: VOA News |
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