SECTION: WORLD AFFAIRS; Horn of Africa

PAGE: Pg. 99 C2

HEADLINE: Ethiopia Launches Counteroffensive

BODY:

   Ethiopian troops, aided by the U.S.S.R. and Cuba, went on the offensive at the end of January against Somali-backed
guerrillas who were in control of most of Ethiopia's southeastern Ogaden region. According to reports, the Ethiopian forces
had driven the Somali attackers from the Ogaden downs of Diredawa and Harar and by Feb. 14 were pushing the Somalis
back toward Jijiga, which was still in Somali hands. [See 1977, p. 998C1, map p. 648 D3]

The offensive had begun Jan. 22, according to reports, and by the first week of February, Ethiopian planes were bombing
Somali positions in the mountainous region. Ethiopian military commanders told reporters Feb. 12 that the Ethiopians had
advanced 60 kilometers (36 miles) north from Diredawa, 30 kilometers (18 miles) north and 40 kilometers (24 miles) south
from Harar and were within 30 kilometers (19 miles) of Jijiga. They said the advance had gained ground at first but had halted
since the beginning of February. The Ethiopian military command said Ethiopia had lost 500-700 men since the beginning of the
fighting in 1977 and estimated Somali losses in the thousands.

Cuban Buildup Noted -- Western diplomats reported Feb. 8 that Cuba was sending new reinforcements to Ethiopia.
According to Western intelligence reports, the Cuban presence totaled 3,000 personnel and was growing. Reports from the
Somali capital of Mogadishu said 3,000-6,000 additional Cuban troops were heading toward Ethiopia's Red Sea port of
Assab.

Cubans were also reported to be flying bombing raids for Ethiopia. Somalia charged Feb. 8 that two raids had been carried out against the Somali city of Hargeisa and the port of Berbera. There were no indications of serious damage or casualties.

Somalia had put on display a Cuban soldier captured in Ogaden fighting, according to a report Jan. 29. The soldier said he had
been captured Jan. 22 near Harar.

U.S.S.R. Pledges No Somali Invasion -- The U.S.S.R. had assured the U.S. that Ethiopia would not cross the Somali border
in its drive to wrest Ogaden from Somali control. U.S. Secretary of State Cyrus Vance Feb. 10 said he had received a Soviet
pledge that the Ethiopian advance would be halted on the Somali border.

Vance said the U.S. would remain neutral toward the Horn of Africa conflict, but "if a crossing of border occurred, that would
present a new and different situation, and we would have to consider it at the time." He repeated the U.S. call for the
withdrawal of both Somali forces and Soviet and Cuban personnel from Ogaden and for negotiations to settle the future of the
area.

Vance indicated that the U.S. was slowing down efforts to reach an agreement on demilitarizing the Indian Ocean in retaliation
for the Soviet presence in Ethiopia. [See 1977, p. 999A2]

(Western diplomats in Mogadishu expressed the opinion that Washington and Moscow had reached a tacit agreement on the
Horn of Africa, according to a report Feb. 8 in the New York Times.  Diplomats cited in the report speculated that the U.S.
had agreed to discourage its allies from arming Somalia in exchange for a Soviet pledge to keep Ethiopian troops from crossing
the Ethiopian-Somali border.)

Somalia Orders General Mobilization -- Somalia Feb. 11 ordered a general mobilization of its populace to counter what it
said was an imminent Ethiopian invasion of its territory. Citing the "failure of Western powers to assume the responsibility of
confronting Soviet aggression," the government said troops would be sent to the Ogaden.

The statement amounted to Somalia's first formal admission that regular troops would join the Western Somali Liberation Front, the guerrilla group fighting to incorporate Ogaden into Somalia. It had been widely accepted that the Somali army was in
Ogaden all along. [See p. 43F2]

The Somali army consisted of about 30,000 men, according to reports, while the Ethiopian army comprised 40,000. Ethiopia in adition had equipped and trained an 80,000-man peasant militia.

Egypt Offers Somalia Aid -- Egyptian President Anwar Sadat Feb. 6 accused Cuban and Soviet pilots of flying missions
against Somalia, and he indicated that Egypt would intervene on Somalia's side. [See p. 78B1]

Egypt and Sudan had pledged aid to Somalia in the event of an invasion by Ethiopia, according to two U.S. congressmen Jan.
26. Reps. Don Bonker (D, Wash.) and Paul Tsongas (D, Mass.) were reporting on a trip they had made through the Horn of
Africa in December 1977. They told U.S. President Jimmy Carter that Sadat had given Somalia $30 million worth of arms, and
Egypt and Sudan had pledged to send troops to Somalia if Ethiopia invaded. [See 1977, p. 998C2]

Meanwhile, Somalia Feb. 4 made a second request to the U.S., Great Britain, France, West Germany and Italy for aid,
according to a British diplomat Feb. 5. The request had been made in meetings with the ambassadors of the five nations in
Mogadishu. [See p. 43A3]

In other news of Somali aid, Somalia had received French-made tanks from Saudi Arabia, according to a report Feb. 8 in the
Washington Post.

Israel Discloses Ethiopia Aid -- Israeli Foreign Minister Moshe Dayan Feb. 6 revealed that Israel had been selling arms to
Ethiopia to repel the Somali-backed invasion of Ogaden. Dayan said the aid was meant to maintain good relations with Ethiopia and protect Red Sea shipping routes for Israeli ships. (Israel reportedly was concerned over the prospect of Moslem nations' controlling the Red Sea. Ethiopia, largely a Christian nation, had maintained good relations with Israel until the 1973
Arab-Israeli war. [See 1973, p. 881C1])

Ethiopia Denounces West -- Ethiopian criticism of alleged aid to Somalia by the U.S. and other Western nations and their
allies had mounted since the end of January.

Head of State Lt. Col. Mengistu Haile Mariam Feb. 14 accused the U.S. and other Western nations of giving aid to Somalia
and threatened to break diplomatic relations. Speaking at a news conference, Mengistu said the U.S. was furnishing arms to
"Iran, Pakistan, Spain, Saudi Arabia and other reactionary Arab regimes" that aided Somalia.

Mengistu asserted that the West was spreading "false propaganda" about Ethiopian intentions to invade Somalia. "Ethiopia has
no aim other than expelling Somali forces from its territory," he said.

Ethiopia Feb. 1 delivered protest notes to the embassies of the U.S., Great Britain, France, West Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia
and Iran, accusing those contries of providing "diplomatic and military assistance to the enemies of Ethiopia." A number of mass
rallies had been held during February in Addis Ababa, the capital, to denounce alleged aid to Somalia by the members of the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Somalia Feb. 1 denied receiving aid from the Western and Arab countries Ethiopia had denounced.

OAU Presses Mediation Drive -- Brig. Joseph Garba of Nigeria left Somalia Feb. 9 after consulting with Somali President
Mohamed Siad Barre. Garba, chairman of a mediation committee of the Organization of African Unity (OAU), had visited
Ethiopia the week before in an attempt to open talks between the two sides on a settlement in Ogaden.

The Ethiopians told Garba that no negotiations could take place while Somali troops were in Ogaden, and Somalia told Garba
that the aspirations of the people of Ogaden must form a basis for a settlement.

The OAU Jan. 20 warned Iran to stay out of the Horn of Africa conflict. Calling for an end to foreign "meddling" in African
affairs, the OAU accused Iran of seeking to extend its sphere of influence and critized it for supplying oil to South Africa. The
OAU was responding to an Iranian statement that Iran would not remain neutral if Somalia were invaded.

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