While he is the darling of Washington and London because of the well-oiled free-market economic views that he holds forth in international inner circles, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi does not show the same openness of mind when it comes to matters of domestic politics. As the date of the general election on 23 May is drawing closer his attitude has hardened and he is returning to the intransigence that was his when he led the small Marxist-Leninist group that formed the core of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) during the armed struggle against the regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam. The window onto democracy that opened ever so slightly in the 2005 election is now closed and even firmly bolted down as the new elections draw near.
Firm and intransigent. The examples of Meles Zenawi's increasing intransigence are legion. Should a report on the BBC or Voice of America displease him, he would threaten to jam the reception of these stations in his country. To such an extent that VoA now uses satellite transmission to broadcast its Amharic programmes. Radio stations and web sites run by his opponents in exile are more or less inaccessible in Ethiopia due to Chinese help in both equipment and technicians. After all, this country has become something of an expert in jamming communications. Over the last year a series of laws have been passed to muzzle NGOs, criminalise the opposition and push journalists into self-censorship or exile. The American Senator Russ Feingold recently complained that democracy in Ethiopia had taken a step backwards, a view confirmed in the latest report from Human Rights Watch (HRW) as the one by Amnesty International had already done. A clear illustration of this trend was the threats Meles Zenawi issued last week to take legal action after the close of polls against any opponents who have criticised the election process.
Fratricide war in Tigray. The fact is, the TPLF, the hard core of the governing coalition EPRDF, is deeply apprehensive as the elections approach. In the Tigray Regional State, Meles Zenawi's partisans will be pitted against rivals they know well, since they are their former comrades in the TPLF who were purged in 2001 and so became dissidents or even opponents in the Arena party, member of the opposition grouping Medrek. The Prime Minister will himself have to fight for his seat in his home constituency of Adwa, where he will run against a local candidate Aregash Adane, a former TPLF combatant. Personalities, like the former Minister for Defence Seye Abraha, the former President of Tigray Regional State Gebru Asrat and one of the founders of the TPLF, Asgede GebreSelassie (who is running against the Minister for Federal Affairs Abay Tsehaye) will ply for votes from the voters in the northern part of the country. At the same time, the EPRDF has instigated a process of renewing its leaders, so some TPLF heavyweights will not run in this election. However, in spite of this, the Prime Minister needs a convincing electoral success in Tigray, otherwise his political days will be numbered. Hence the increasing pressure on Medrek candidates and sympathisers in Tigray, who are systematically photographed whenever they attend a public meeting of their organisation.
Observers are filing through. In such a noxious atmosphere, the requested international observers for the election are hardly rushing in at the door. The Carter Center founded by the former American President has already thrown in the towel because the Ethiopian administration refused approval for an exploratory mission before February, which it considered too late. For its part, the European Union (EU) mission could be at risk. An exploratory mission went to Addis Ababa in February and reported to the European Parliament and to the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Catherine Ashton who will take the final decision. But the members of this mission are not all agreed and the negotiations with Ethiopia to send EU observers have not even begun. Brussels normally considers that the first wave of observers should ideally be sent out two months before an election. But this deadline is almost over. The only reason stopping the EU from throwing in the towel is the fact that would put Meles Zenawi in the best position, as it was he who requested these observers in spite of the 2005 precedent, and subsequently did all he could for them to come under his own terms.
Source: indian Ocean
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written by swiss eta 2836 movement, April 18, 2012
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