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The fragmented state of the opposition is playing into President Guelleh's hand for the 2011 election.

Some well-known opponents to the regime - Daher Ahmed Farah known as DAF, Mohamed Kadamy and Mohamed DaoudChehem - were present at the press conference held in Paris on 24 June by Olivier Morice, the lawyer acting for AbdourahmanBoreh. This gave the impression that the opposition was on the verge of forming a coalition. In fact, this is very far from the truth! It is certainly the case that Boreh has sided with the opposition since he fell out with the presidential couple. He advocates a union against President Ismail Omar Guelleh (IOG) winning a third mandate. But even though he is widely supported among the Issa/Odahgob community, he is by no means a political party.

The main force in the legal opposition, the UAD coalition, is as wary of Boreh (due to his past friendship with IOG) as it is of the Armed FRUD, whose international spokesman is Kadamy. The UAD is made up of the UDJ led by IsmaelGuedi Hared which has support among the Issa/Saad Moussa clan, the mainly AfarARD of Ahmed Youssouf and DAF's group the MRD which draws its members from the Issa/Fourlaba. DAF is one of the few UAD leaders to openly speak in favour of an alliance with the Armed FRUD; he therefore acts as a link between the legal parties and those in favour of armed action.

Outside the UAD, Aden Robleh, the leader of the PND has also come out against IOG running for a third mandate, but his party has not yet officially left the UMP, the coalition backing IOG. The minuscule PDD has a very limited amount of influence, not going much further than those close to its chairman Mohamed Daoud Chehem. The armed FRUD, for its part, favours a large gathering against IOG's re-election, while insisting that the political nature of a possible opposition agreement is very important. Three trade union leaders have made many contacts during the past month to try and bring the UAD and the Armed FRUD to converge: Adan Mohamed Abdo, general secretary of the UDT and number two in the ARD; Kamil Diraneh Hared the general secretary of the UGTD and Gedi's right-hand man; Mohamed Doubad, spokesman for the Intersyndicale trade union and close to the MRD. But so far all has been to no avail!